FEATURED PAPER

Probabilistic Analysis of the Duration of Human Actions (Analytical Scheduling Risk Analysis)

By Pavel Barseghyan, PhD

Abstract

Duration of the human actions has a random character and nonlinear dependency on the degree of difficulty of these actions and the productivity of people.

Both the random nature of the actions of people and their nonlinearity have a direct connection to the analysis of the scheduling risks of human activities. The best mean for studying these risks are the distribution functions of the duration of human actions. From the adequacy of these distribution functions depends largely the correctness of the provisional estimates of risk, and in general, the meaningfulness of the whole methodology of the scheduling risk analysis.

The random-length human actions can be described by a variety of distribution functions, thus necessitating different approaches to the analysis of scheduling risk. In this sense, the problem of choosing the distribution functions of the duration of the separate actions of a human is central to the methodology for the scheduling risk analysis of the human activities.

The reason for this is that depending on the specific working situation, the dynamics of the actions of a human varies, which in its turn leads to the changes of the structure of the accompanying risks. In this situation, the solution of the problem is to create models of human work that are able to take into account the peculiarities of the work and capabilities of the people. In turn, these models can serve as a basis for the derivation of distribution functions of the duration of human actions in an analytical way.

This paper is devoted to the analytical derivation of distribution function of the human action's duration in order to build a basis for scheduling risk analysis in accordance with the specific working conditions of people. The main determinants of these new risk functions are the difficulty of human actions and the productivity of people in overcoming these difficulties.

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About the Author Pavel Barseghyan, PhD Author Dr. Pavel Barseghyan is a consultant in the field of quantitative project management, project data mining and organizational science. He is the founder of Systemic PM, LLC, a project management company. Has over 40 years experience in academia, the electronics industry, the EDA industry and Project Management Research and tools development. During the period of 1999-2010 he was the Vice President of Research for Numetrics Management Systems. Prior to joining Numetrics, Dr. Barseghyan worked as an R&D manager at Infinite Technology Corp. in Texas. He was also a founder and the president of an EDA start-up company, DAN Technologies, Ltd. that focused on high-level chip design planning and RTL structural floor planning technologies. Before joining ITC, Dr. Barseghyan was head of the Electronic Design and CAD department at the State Engineering University of Armenia, focusing on development of the Theory of Massively Interconnected Systems and its applications to electronic design. During the period of 1975-1990, he was also a member of the University Educational Policy Commission for Electronic Design and CAD Direction in the Higher Education Ministry of the former USSR. Earlier in his career he was a senior researcher in Yerevan Research and Development Institute of Mathematical Machines (Armenia). He is an author of nine monographs and textbooks and more than 100 scientific articles in the area of quantitative project management, mathematical theory of human work, electronic design and EDA methodologies, and tools development. More than 10 Ph.D. degrees have been awarded under his supervision. Dr. Barseghyan holds an MS in Electrical Engineering (1967) and Ph.D. (1972) and Doctor of Technical Sciences (1990) in Computer Engineering from Yerevan Polytechnic Institute (Armenia). Pavel can be contacted at pavel@systemicpm.com.