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Vol. XI Issue III - March 2009
Project Management eJournal
FEATURED PAPER
Human Effort Dynamics and
Schedule Risk Analysis
By Pavel Barseghyan
Abstract
Human work duration and related risks are the results of human actions. Therefore quantitative analysis of human action dynamics is becoming a problem of paramount importance for the new challenges of project planning and schedule risk analysis. In most cases contemporary schedule risk analysis is not adequate because we do not know the form of the risk function. Hypothesizing the normal distribution for that purpose is not adequate because it leads to undesirable results.
This paper presents a new view on the problems of schedule risk analysis. Instead of hypothesizing the mathematical form of the distribution of work closure time, this paper suggests a qualitative explanation of the need for Heavy (Fat) tail distributions for schedule risk analysis and an analytical derivation of the closure time distribution function.
Key words: Human action dynamics, schedule risk analysis, Heavy (Fat) tail distributions, linear and non-linear work, deterministic and stochastic work, bursts of human actions, effort and duration, State equation of human actions.
About the Author
Dr. Pavel Barseghyan is the Vice President of Research for Numetrics Management Systems, has over 40 years experience in academia, the electronics industry, the EDA industry and Project Management Research. Also he is the founder of Systemic PM, LLC, a project management company. Prior to joining Numetrics, Dr. Barseghyan worked as an R&D manager at Infinite Technology Corp. in Texas. He was also a founder and the president of an EDA start-up company, DAN Technologies, Ltd. that focused on high-level chip design planning and RTL structural floor planning technologies. Before joining ITC, Dr. Barseghyan was head of the Electronic Design and CAD department at the State Engineering University of Armenia, focusing on development of the Theory of Massively Interconnected Systems and its applications to electronic design. During the period of 1975-1990, he was also a member of the University Educational Policy Commission for Electronic Design and CAD Direction in the Higher Education Ministry of the former USSR. Earlier in his career he was a senior researcher in Yerevan Research and Development Institute of Mathematical Machines (Armenia). He is an author of nine monographs and textbooks and more than 100 scientific articles in the area of electronic design and EDA methodologies, and tools development. More than 10 Ph.D. degrees have been awarded under his supervision. Dr. Barseghyan holds an MS in Electrical Engineering (1967) and Ph.D. (1972) and Doctor of Technical Sciences (1990) in Computer Engineering from Yerevan Polytechnic Institute (Armenia). Pavel can be contacted at pavel@systemicpm.com.
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