Disruptive Events!
Are you, your project or your organization prepared ?

Introduction

Risk Management is a hot topic in the project and program management arena, and for good reason. As project complexity increases, and uncertainty grows in project environments everywhere, risks seem more widespread and prevalent. While most risk management approaches focus on potential risk events, and disaster planning and recovery are often included, many organizations seem to consider major risk events as “one-off” possibilities, unlikely to occur or to affect their projects.

I believe that disruptive events are more common than most people realize, and that they are increasing. In my June Editorial, entitled “Global Business Intelligence for Managers of Programs, Projects and Project-oriented Organizations,” I addressed Disruptive Events as a subject for executives and program managers to consider when gathering strategic intelligence. [1] This was also discussed in three papers that I wrote in 1998 and 1999 on the topic of how significant global trends and events can affect the project management profession, the last one presented at the PMI South Africa International Project Management Conference in Johannesburg in November 1999. [2]

As explained in my June article, a disruptive change is a significant event with drastic potential consequences. The most obvious examples might be natural disasters caused by extreme weather - a cyclone, hurricane or flood, for example. The loss of a company’s data center would be a disruptive change for that organization. A change in government, as occurred with the election of Barack Obama as President in the United States in November 2008, is an example of a disruptive political change, in this case with global consequences. Other examples include stock market crash, currency crisis, breakout of war (Russia & Georgia in 2008), new technology breakthrough (iPod), bankruptcy of major corporations (Chrysler, General Motors, Lehman Brothers), major merger or acquisition, disruptive new legislation or regulations (Sarbanes Oxley in USA), outbreak of pandemic disease (H1N1 Flu this year), international belligerence (North Korea declares 1950 truce void in late May 2009), natural resources discovery (oil under the arctic), etc. The list goes on. [3]

Disruptive events can change or drastically affect a market, industry, organization, program or project, by changing the environment within which programs and projects exist. In some cases, the immediate impact is on critical resources that a program or project needs to succeed. In other cases, the immediate impact might be on a project owner, customer or other stakeholder. In many cases, the immediate impact on a project or program might not be immediately apparent, only causing a disruptive impact after some time lapses. I now believe that many such disruptive events are likely to happen, can be predicted and should be planned for.

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