MONTHLY COLUMN:

ADVANCES IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT

Beyond tame problems: The case for risk leadership

By Darren Dalcher, PhD
Middlesex University
London, UK

Editor’s note: The series on Advances in Project Management was launched with a Guest Editorial by Professor Darren Dalcher and first article in the December 2009 edition of PM World Today. Please read that introductory editorial here, where Professor Dalcher explains and sets the stage for articles in this exciting series by leading authors in the field of project management. Please read previous articles in the series by visiting the archives, beginning with the December 2009 edition. Each month’s article is introduced by Professor Darren Dalcher, editor of the Series on Advances in Project Management. Here is Professor Dalcher’s introduction to this month’s article.

Introduction to May Advances in Project Management Series Article

Beyond tame problems: The case for risk leadership

Project management is often concerned with improving the current condition and can therefore be viewed in terms of a process moving from a problem, or an opportunity for improvement, towards a solution. In problem solving parlance it is assumed that we are seeking to transform from the current ‘problem’ space to some desired state which represents the ideal solution. If our problems are simple, the logic goes, so might the solutions be. In a carefully ordered world a sequence of steps could therefore guide us along a structured route from the perceived problem to the target solution.

Such simplistic problem configurations can be viewed as simple, well defined, tame or benign. The processes they require match that simplicity by implying a deterministic order of resolution, further suggesting a target state that is optimal, or at least the optimal means for achieving the desired solution. Tame problems thus benefit from a linear step-by-step resolution approaches.

In practice, many of the problems faced by project managers do not conform to idealised structures and optimal decision routines. Instead project managers have to deal with novel, one of a kind, unfocused and complex situations that are better characterised as ill structured. To reflect the open-ended, interconnected, social perspective we operate in, planners and designers talk of wicked problems. Such problems tend to be ill-defined and rely upon much elusive political judgment for resolution.

Messier situations imply a much closer link between problem and solution. Interfering and interacting with non tame situations leads to waves of repercussions, inducing new problems of greater severity elsewhere. Add multiple stakeholders with conflicting priorities, value systems and wishes, some fuzzy boundaries, multiple levels of complexity and inherent contradictions and it becomes easy to see why many resolution efforts go awry.

The idea of a rational or scientific approach is particularly effective under tame conditions. It becomes stretched when the level of complexity rises and less than rational humans with contradictions and conflicting perspectives need to be accounted for. Many scientific methods however appealing have a somewhat limited domain of operation, especially when stretched to account for the wicked and messier aspects of real life.

The article this month by Dr. David Hancock continues our focus on uncertainty and risk. Many of the methods used in risk management oversimplify life assuming a degree of ‘tameness’ that is unrealistic. The embedded uncertainty and ignorance faced in many projects cannot be accounted for through overly simplistic risk management. As a consequence we apply the wrong kind of procedures to situations.

The ideas in the article are taken from David’s book Tame, Messy and Wicked Risk Leadership published by Gower in the Advances in Project Management book series. David reminds us that quantitative assessment is limited in some domains thus making a powerful case for a new kind of risk leadership: a more inclusive approach that embraces uncertainty and unpredictability whilst seeking improvement to our current condition through realisation of the different paths that may open up as we seek to improve our current condition.

Darren Dalcher, PhD
Middlesex University, London
Series Editor