Mathematical Theory of Human Work
(Methodological Problems and Static Mathematical Models of Human Work)

Over the past few decades there have been made many attempts to develop statistical methods for project estimations based on historical data. Despite the huge amount of wasted effort, by far, statistical methods in project management cannot be considered satisfactory because of their unacceptably large estimation errors.

The most dangerous situation during the processing of data is their interpretation without a top-down conceptual model, guided only by their external attributes, as their accumulation and the orientation of data in the project space. Because of unreliability of statistical data mining methods, solutions of many problems of quantitative project management simply have to be started from scratch. This state of affairs requires extensive research to address high priority problems of fundamental nature in the theory of project management.

Therefore, at present the primary challenge for quantitative project management is not how to find solutions for the managing of complex projects in the difficult and unpredictable environments (though this is a very important problem too), but how to manage the most ordinary and simple projects in easy and predictable environments. Unfortunately even for these simple cases, modern quantitative project management doesn’t have correct solutions.

Without knowing solutions of the problems for simple cases it is simply impossible to find correct solutions for highly complicated cases. From here the high failure rate for complex projects exist. To improve the overall situation in the field of quantitative project management and its exit from the current crisis it is required to conduct systematic studies in mathematical modeling of human labor and the creation of a common theoretical framework for analysis and synthesis of projects.

This paper consists of two parts dedicated to the discussion of the methodological problems of quantitative project management and development of the static mathematical models of human labor.

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About the Author Pavel Barseghyan, PhD Author Dr. Pavel Barseghyan is Vice President of Research for Numetrics Management Systems, has over 40 years experience in academia, the electronics industry, the EDA industry and Project Management Research. Also he is the founder of Systemic PM, LLC, a project management company. Prior to joining Numetrics, Dr. Barseghyan worked as an R&D manager at Infinite Technology Corp. in Texas. He was also a founder and the president of an EDA start-up company, DAN Technologies, Ltd. that focused on high-level chip design planning and RTL structural floor planning technologies. Before joining ITC, Dr. Barseghyan was head of the Electronic Design and CAD department at the State Engineering University of Armenia, focusing on development of the Theory of Massively Interconnected Systems and its applications to electronic design. During the period of 1975-1990, he was also a member of the University Educational Policy Commission for Electronic Design and CAD Direction in the Higher Education Ministry of the former USSR. Earlier in his career he was a senior researcher in Yerevan Research and Development Institute of Mathematical Machines (Armenia). He is an author of nine monographs and textbooks and more than 100 scientific articles in the area of electronic design and EDA methodologies, and tools development. More than 10 Ph.D. degrees have been awarded under his supervision. Dr. Barseghyan holds an MS in Electrical Engineering (1967) and Ph.D. (1972) and Doctor of Technical Sciences (1990) in Computer Engineering from Yerevan Polytechnic Institute (Armenia). Pavel can be contacted at pavel@systemicpm.com.