Editor’s note: An abbreviated version of this paper was presented at the 22nd IPMA World Congress on
Project Management in Rome, Italy during 9-11 November 2008 and included in the Proceedings for that
congress. Republication here authorized by representatives of IPMA and Roma 2008 World Congress.

Abstract

Project management is being redefined as it changes its core paradigm from certainty to uncertainty. Project management started in the late 1950s with the development of PERT. It then developed slowly until the mid 1960s when project management associations formed. It was not until 1987 that the first PMBOK appeared and 1995 until the first competency standards were developed. This slow development changed abruptly in the 1990s with new demands from the rapid developments in ICT, problems caused by the traditional win-lose culture, corporate
outsourcing strategies, and the fast pace of technological change collectively driving innovation.

This pressure has continued and has resulted in the formalisation of complex project management and a fundamental change in the paradigm of project management.

This paper uses Kuhn’s theory of punctuated equilibrium to review the development of project management, and current challenges and opportunities facing project management. The paper then defines scenarios for the profession’s future development.

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About the Author Dr. David Dombkins Prof. Dr. David Dombkins is MPM, Doctor of Technology, Master Project Director, FAIPM, is a recognised international leader in the development of new competencies and methodologies to manage system-of-systems and complexity. Dr Dombkins is foremost a practitioner, presently advising the US Secretary of Defense on system-of-systems governance and competency development, and also assisting the UAE Government in the development of its post-oil economy. Recent publications of Dr Dombkins include the US Centre for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) Organising for a Complex World (contributing author), and the Complex Project Manager Competency Standards (co- authored with the Australian Department of Defence). Dr Dombkins was instrumental in the introduction of Partnering into Australia; developed the original Design-Construct-Maintain contract and Alliancing methodology that are now used internationally for infrastructure and PPP/PFI; and most recently developed the Governance Contracting methodology to apply Alliancing within an emergent, system-of-systems environment. Dr Dombkins has published two books: Complex Project Management and Contracts for Complex Programs.

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